"Tracking Progress - Renewable Energy" - California

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California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
Renewable Energy
Advancing the use and availability of renewable energy is critical to achieving California’s
ambitious climate goals. With this in mind, California has pursued a suite of policies and
programs aimed at advancing renewable energy and ensuring all Californians, including low-
income and disadvantaged communities, benefit from this transition. This report presents the
state’s progress in meeting its renewable energy goals and provides an updated analysis
through 2018 of renewable energy generation, installed renewable capacity, and a discussion of
the trends, opportunities, and challenges associated with the renewable energy transition. More
detailed figures and tables are included in the appendix.
1
Renewable Energy Serving California Consumers
Annual Renewable Percentage: Renewables Portfolio Standard Progress
An increasing percentage of energy consumed by Californians comes from renewable sources.
A key mandate advancing the use of renewable energy has been the Renewables Portfolio
Standard (RPS), which requires California load-serving entities
(LSEs) to increase their
2
procurement of eligible renewable energy resources (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and
small hydroelectric) to 33 percent of retail sales by 2020 and 60 percent of retail sales by 2030.
Based on reported electric generation from RPS-eligible sources divided by forecasted
electricity retail sales for 2019, the California Energy Commission (CEC) estimates that 36
percent of California’s 2019 retail electricity sales was served by RPS-eligible renewable
resources as shown in Figure 1. Although this number is not a final RPS determination, it is an
important indicator of progress in achieving California’s RPS goals.
Figure 1: Estimated Current Renewables Portfolio Standard Progress
Source: CEC staff analysis, December 2019
The annual renewable percentage estimated by the CEC has continued to increase in recent
years, often ahead of the timelines envisioned by prior legislation. Figure 2 shows the historical
estimated renewable percentage values.
1 Renewable Tracking Progress Appendix.
2 LSEs are defined in the CEC’s
RPS Eligibility Guidebook
as “a term used to refer to retail sellers, POUs, and all
other entities serving retail sales of electricity in California that are obligated to participate in California’s RPS”
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=217317
(
, p. 82).
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 1
California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
Renewable Energy
Advancing the use and availability of renewable energy is critical to achieving California’s
ambitious climate goals. With this in mind, California has pursued a suite of policies and
programs aimed at advancing renewable energy and ensuring all Californians, including low-
income and disadvantaged communities, benefit from this transition. This report presents the
state’s progress in meeting its renewable energy goals and provides an updated analysis
through 2018 of renewable energy generation, installed renewable capacity, and a discussion of
the trends, opportunities, and challenges associated with the renewable energy transition. More
detailed figures and tables are included in the appendix.
1
Renewable Energy Serving California Consumers
Annual Renewable Percentage: Renewables Portfolio Standard Progress
An increasing percentage of energy consumed by Californians comes from renewable sources.
A key mandate advancing the use of renewable energy has been the Renewables Portfolio
Standard (RPS), which requires California load-serving entities
(LSEs) to increase their
2
procurement of eligible renewable energy resources (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and
small hydroelectric) to 33 percent of retail sales by 2020 and 60 percent of retail sales by 2030.
Based on reported electric generation from RPS-eligible sources divided by forecasted
electricity retail sales for 2019, the California Energy Commission (CEC) estimates that 36
percent of California’s 2019 retail electricity sales was served by RPS-eligible renewable
resources as shown in Figure 1. Although this number is not a final RPS determination, it is an
important indicator of progress in achieving California’s RPS goals.
Figure 1: Estimated Current Renewables Portfolio Standard Progress
Source: CEC staff analysis, December 2019
The annual renewable percentage estimated by the CEC has continued to increase in recent
years, often ahead of the timelines envisioned by prior legislation. Figure 2 shows the historical
estimated renewable percentage values.
1 Renewable Tracking Progress Appendix.
2 LSEs are defined in the CEC’s
RPS Eligibility Guidebook
as “a term used to refer to retail sellers, POUs, and all
other entities serving retail sales of electricity in California that are obligated to participate in California’s RPS”
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=217317
(
, p. 82).
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 1
California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
Figure 2: Reported Annual Renewable Percentage Estimates
Source: CEC staff analysis, December 2019
In 2019, large hydroelectric and nuclear generation were a significant source of California
electricity. Estimated large hydroelectric generation for 2019 indicates increased usage from
Figure 3 shows that when sources of carbon-free energy such as
2018 generation quantities.
4
large hydroelectric generation and nuclear are included with RPS-eligible renewables, 63
percent of the state’s electricity retail sales came from non-fossil fuel sources in 2019. However
trends involving large hydroelectric generation are not consistent given the substantial year-to-
year hydroelectric generation variability.
Figure 3: Estimated 2019 RPS-Eligible Renewables, Large Hydroelectric, and Nuclear
Percentages of Retail Sales
Source: CEC staff analysis, January 2020
Renewables Portfolio Standard
On September 10, 2018, former Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. signed Senate Bill (SB) 100
(De León, Chapter 312, Statutes of 2018) increasing California’s RPS target to 60 percent by
2030 and adding a planning target of 100 percent renewable and zero-carbon electricity by
2045.
LSEs demonstrate compliance with the RPS through the retirement of renewable energy
3
3
Senate Bill 100 (De León, Chapter 312, Statutes of 2018.
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180SB100
,
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 2
California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
credits (RECs), certificates of proof associated with the generation of 1 megawatt-hour (MWh)
of electricity from a California RPS-certified renewable energy resource.
The RPS establishes multiyear compliance periods in recognition that given resources may not
be continuously or cost-effectively available or both, and a utility’s procurement may vary to
some degree from one year to another. For each compliance period, the RPS requires all LSEs
in the state to achieve escalating procurement targets.
LSEs are also required to procure a
4
“balanced portfolio” of resources over each compliance period.
In Compliance Period (CP) 3,
5
which covers 2017-2020, LSEs are required to procure increasing amounts of renewable
electricity each year ramping up to achieve at least 33 percent of retail sales by December 31,
2020. An LSE’s compliance with RPS requirements will be determined based on the aggregated
retail sales and procurement over the entire four-year period. Figure 4 provides the increased
renewable energy soft targets and legislative targets until 2030.
After 2030, the 60 percent
6
RPS requirement continues along with the added SB 100 goal to supply renewable and zero-
carbon resources for the remaining 40 percent of California delivered electricity.
Figure 4: Additive California RPS Requirements Through 2030
Source: CEC staff analysis, June 2019
Overall, California LSEs have been successful in meeting the RPS requirements. According to
the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which oversees the RPS compliance of retail
4 Compliance period targets for POUs are defined in California Code of Regulations (CCR) Title 20, Section 3204(a)
and in California Public Utilities Commission Decision D. 11-12-020 for retail sellers. The CEC has formally amended
the CCR Title 20, Section 3204 to incorporate the statutorily defined targets for 2024, 2027, and 2030.
5 Public Utilities Code Sections 399.16 and 399.30.
6 Soft targets are “… an amount equivalent to the percentage of retail sales for a single year within a compliance
period that is used to calculate the RPS procurement target for that compliance period.” CCR Title 20, Sec. 3201(ee)
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 3
California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
sellers, 14 retail sellers, including the three large investor-owned utilities (IOUs) that served the
majority of California’s sales, were in compliance in CP 1.
The remaining six retail sellers were
7
noncompliant.
In CP2, which covers 2014-2016, 23 retail sellers were compliant. Two of the
8
remaining three retail sellers were non-compliant and a third has requested a waiver. The CEC
oversees compliance for 43 local publicly owned electric utilities (POUs). Of the 41 POUs in
compliance for the 2011–2013 period to date, 26 met the procurement targets and portfolio
balance requirements (PBR),
and 15 POUs applied optional compliance measures to satisfy
9
one or more procurement requirements.
In CP 2, 37 POUs met the procurement targets and
10
43 met the PBR, while 6 POUs are applying to use optional compliance measures to satisfy
their RPS procurement requirements. Over the past two compliance periods, fewer LSEs have
been out of compliance. However, this trend may not continue as the RPS requirements
change. Figure 5 summarizes POU and retail seller compliance in Compliance Periods 1 and 2.
Figure 5: Summary of POU and Retail Seller Compliance for
Compliance Periods 1 and 2
Source: CEC staff analysis, December 2019
7 Two retail sellers found out of compliance in CP 1 have waivers pending before the CPUC that could excuse
noncompliance, if approved.
https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/General.aspx?id=3856
8
CPUC RPS Compliance Period 1
Determinations.
.
9 PBR refers to a minimum and maximum amount of certain REC category requirements.
10 The CEC cannot make a compliance determination for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power until its
verified results are adopted at a Commission business meeting. Port of Stockton was found out of compliance.
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 4
California Energy Commission
Tracking Progress
Statewide Renewable Generation
For 2019, solar continues to represent the largest portion of renewable generation serving
California load. Solar and wind generation together accounted for more than 62 percent of all
renewable electricity generation, not including behind-the-meter (BTM) or off-grid solar
generation.
Figure 6 shows renewable generation from power facilities serving California load from 1983
through 2019 by resource type, including grid-connected BTM solar resources. The estimated
2019 total renewable generation, including out-of-state generation delivered to California and
BTM solar generation, is 105,559 gigawatt-hours (GWh), including an estimated 16,306 GWh of
BTM solar. In the past five years, solar generation has increased over 350 percent, and BTM
solar resources have increased by nearly 120 percent. These generation estimates do not
include generation from BTM wind resources. Figure 6 also shows key policy changes in 2002,
2006, 2011, 2015, and 2018 that have supported renewable resource adoption.
Figure 6: Total Renewable Generation Serving California Load by Resource Type
Source: CEC staff analysis, December 2019
Last updated February 2020
2/18/20
Renewable Energy 5